Could the bad olddays of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cutsin March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up fromless than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scarymemories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, whenthey also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digitinflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning ofgloom and doom this time?
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraqsuspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time aswinter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in theshort term。
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences nowto be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oilnow accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, soeven quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pumpprices than in the past。
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, andso less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift toother fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensiveindustries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobiletelephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar ofGDP rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil pricesaveraged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this wouldincrease the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. Thatis less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand,oil-importing emerging economiesto which heavy industry has shiftedhave become moreenergy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed。
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices isthat, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the backgroundof general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizableportion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. TheEconomist s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%， and in 1979 byalmost 30%。
31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is
[A]global inflation.
[B]reduction in supply。
[C]fast growth in economy.
[D]Iraq s suspension of exports。
32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price ofpetrol will go up dramatically if
[A]price of crude rises.
[B]commodity prices rise。
[C]consumption rises.
[D]oil taxes rise。
33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
[A]heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。
[B]income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。
[C]manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。
[D]oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP。
34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that
[A]oil-price shocks are less shocking now。
[B]inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks。
[C]energy conservation can keep down the oil prices。
[D]the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry。
35. From the text we can see that the writer seems
[A]optimistic.
[B]sensitive.
[C]gloomy.
[D]scared。
名師解析
31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is 最近的油價上漲的主要原因是
[A]global inflation. 全球通貨膨脹。
[B]reduction in supply。供應量減少。
[C]fast growth in economy. 快速的經濟增長。
[D]Iraq s suspension of exports. 伊拉克暫時停止石油出口。
【答案】 B
【考點】 事實細節題。
【分析】 根據題干可以定位到第一段的第二句話Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oilhas jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December。，說明由於石油輸出國決定降低供給量，使得油價上升。所以本題的答案是[B]。[D]不是該現象的主要原因，因為OPEC的相關決定才是能夠影響石油價格的走勢的主要原因。
32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price ofpetrol will go up dramatically if
從文中可以推斷出，如果________，汽油的零售價格將會劇烈上升。
[A]price of crude rises. 原油價格上升。
[B]commodity prices rise. 日用品價格上升。
[C]consumption rises. 消費上升。
[D]oil taxes rise. 油稅上升。
【答案】 D
【考點】 推斷題。
【分析】 根據題干可以定位到第三段的第三句話In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price，so evenquite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump pricesthan in the past。.意思是說在歐洲，稅占汽油的零售價的五分之四，因此相比以往，原油的價格變化對汽油的影響不會很明顯。也就是說稅的增加會導致汽油價格的猛漲，而原油價格的變化帶來的影響不會很大。本題一個理解的難度是muted effect，另外一個是pump price。mute表示啞巴的，無聲的，沉默的，和effect連用，表示影響不明顯而pump price是一個很形象的說法，pump指的是泵，這裡很形象用pump指代汽油。根據上述分析，可以得出答案是[D]。
33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
《經濟展望》的評估表明在富國
[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。
重工業變得更加能源密集型。
[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。
收入損失主要由於波動的原油價格造成。
[C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。
製造業面臨嚴重影響。
[D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP。
油價變化對國民生產總值沒有大的影響。
【答案】 D
【考點】 推斷題。
【分析】 根據本題的關鍵詞《經濟展望》的估計可以定位到The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oilprices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, thiswould increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP。。也就是說，油價的上漲對GDP 的影響很小，只有0.25%0.5%。因此我們可以得出答案[D]。
34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that 從文中我們可以得出的結論是
[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now. 油價衝擊已經不再那麼駭人聽聞。
[B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks. 通貨膨脹看起來和油價衝擊無關。
[C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices. 能源儲備能夠使油價下降。
[D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavyindustry。
原油價格的上升導致重工業的萎縮。
【答案】 A
【考點】 文章主旨題。
【分析】 本題的幾個選項需要通篇理解。文章第三段指出油價的經濟影響不會那麼嚴重，作者指出其原因是原油價格占汽油價格的比例不高，已開發國家對石油的依賴減弱，此次漲價的背景不一樣了。文章最後一段說這次油價上漲與20世紀70年代的上漲不同，對各國的影響也基本沒有反映出來，連物價基本都沒有變動，也就是說，油價衝擊已經不是那麼可怕。所以答案是[A]。
35. From the text we can see that the writer seems 從本文中我們可以看出作者看上去是
[A] optimistic. 樂觀的。 [B] sensitive。敏感的。
[C] gloomy. 沮喪的。 [D] scared。恐懼的。
【答案】 A
【考點】 作者態度題。
【分析】 本文作者主要講的就是這次油價上漲的影響不大。尤其是第三段和最後一段的第一句話，強調人們不必擔心此次油價上漲，因為這一次的情況與20世紀70年代不同。由此可見作者的態度是樂觀的。
難句解析：
1. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter gripsthe northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short time。
【結構分析】本句的主語是Strengthening economic growth，謂語是could push，插入成分是一個時間狀語，其中有一個as引導的定語從句，修飾time。
2. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oilprices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, thiswould increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP。
【結構分析】本句的主句是The OECD estimates... that，if引導一個條件狀語，comparedwith $13 in 1998是過去分詞短語做比較狀語，主句是this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only0.25-0.5% of GDP，其中的主語this指代的是if條件句。
3.One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices isthat, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the backgroundof general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand。
【結構分析】本句的主幹是One more reason is that.。.。在that引導的表語從句中，它的主語是it，指代的是the rise in oil prices。
全文翻譯：
過去經濟衰落的糟糕日子會不會重來?自從石油輸出國組織在3月同意減少原油供應，原油的價格已經從去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到約26美元一桶。這次近3倍的漲價令人想起了1973年的恐慌，當時油價上漲了4倍;以及1979―1980年的那一次，當時的油價也上漲了近3倍。前兩次的石油恐慌都導致了兩位數的通貨膨脹和全球性的經濟衰退。那麼這次警告人們厄運來臨的頭版資訊都到哪裡去了呢?
本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這又一次推動著油價上揚。強勁的經濟增長勢頭，加上北半球冬季的到來，有可能在短期內使石油價格漲得更高。
然而，我們有充分的理由預期這次油價暴漲帶來的經濟影響不會像70年代那麼嚴重。現在多數國家的原油價格占汽油價格的份額比70年代要小很多。在歐洲，稅占了汽油零售價的4/5，因此，即使原油價格發生很大的波動，汽油價格所受的影響也不會像過去那麼顯著。
已開發國家對石油的依賴也比從前要少得多，因此對油價的波動也就不會那麼敏感。能源儲備、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工業的重要性的降低，都減少了石油消耗。軟體、諮詢及移動通訊消耗的石油，比鋼鐵、汽車行業少得多。已開發國家國民生產總值中每一個美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。國際經合組織在其最近一期的《經濟展望》中估計，如果全年油價均價22美元左右，與1998年的13美元一桶相比，這僅僅會使已開發國家的石油進口在支出上增加GDP的0.25%―0.5%。這還不到1974年或1980年收入損失部分的1/4。另一方面，由於重工業轉移至一些新興石油進口國，它們對能源可能更加敏感，也更可能會受到強烈影響。
另外一個不應因油價上升而失眠的原因是，與70年代的上漲不同，這次油價上升的大背景不是普遍的物價暴漲及全球過旺的需求。世界上很多地區才剛剛走出經濟衰落。《經濟學家》的商品價格指數一年來總的來說沒有什麼變化。1973年的商品價格躍升了70%，而1979年也上升了近30%。
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraqsuspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time aswinter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in theshort term。
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences nowto be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oilnow accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, soeven quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pumpprices than in the past。
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, andso less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift toother fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensiveindustries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobiletelephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar ofGDP rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil pricesaveraged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this wouldincrease the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. Thatis less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand,oil-importing emerging economiesto which heavy industry has shiftedhave become moreenergy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed。
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices isthat, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the backgroundof general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizableportion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. TheEconomist s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%， and in 1979 byalmost 30%。
31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is
[A]global inflation.
[B]reduction in supply。
[C]fast growth in economy.
[D]Iraq s suspension of exports。
32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price ofpetrol will go up dramatically if
[A]price of crude rises.
[B]commodity prices rise。
[C]consumption rises.
[D]oil taxes rise。
33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
[A]heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。
[B]income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。
[C]manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。
[D]oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP。
34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that
[A]oil-price shocks are less shocking now。
[B]inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks。
[C]energy conservation can keep down the oil prices。
[D]the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry。
35. From the text we can see that the writer seems
[A]optimistic.
[B]sensitive.
[C]gloomy.
[D]scared。
名師解析
31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is 最近的油價上漲的主要原因是
[A]global inflation. 全球通貨膨脹。
[B]reduction in supply。供應量減少。
[C]fast growth in economy. 快速的經濟增長。
[D]Iraq s suspension of exports. 伊拉克暫時停止石油出口。
【答案】 B
【考點】 事實細節題。
【分析】 根據題干可以定位到第一段的第二句話Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oilhas jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December。，說明由於石油輸出國決定降低供給量，使得油價上升。所以本題的答案是[B]。[D]不是該現象的主要原因，因為OPEC的相關決定才是能夠影響石油價格的走勢的主要原因。
32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price ofpetrol will go up dramatically if
從文中可以推斷出，如果________，汽油的零售價格將會劇烈上升。
[A]price of crude rises. 原油價格上升。
[B]commodity prices rise. 日用品價格上升。
[C]consumption rises. 消費上升。
[D]oil taxes rise. 油稅上升。
【答案】 D
【考點】 推斷題。
【分析】 根據題干可以定位到第三段的第三句話In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price，so evenquite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump pricesthan in the past。.意思是說在歐洲，稅占汽油的零售價的五分之四，因此相比以往，原油的價格變化對汽油的影響不會很明顯。也就是說稅的增加會導致汽油價格的猛漲，而原油價格的變化帶來的影響不會很大。本題一個理解的難度是muted effect，另外一個是pump price。mute表示啞巴的，無聲的，沉默的，和effect連用，表示影響不明顯而pump price是一個很形象的說法，pump指的是泵，這裡很形象用pump指代汽油。根據上述分析，可以得出答案是[D]。
33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
《經濟展望》的評估表明在富國
[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。
重工業變得更加能源密集型。
[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。
收入損失主要由於波動的原油價格造成。
[C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。
製造業面臨嚴重影響。
[D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP。
油價變化對國民生產總值沒有大的影響。
【答案】 D
【考點】 推斷題。
【分析】 根據本題的關鍵詞《經濟展望》的估計可以定位到The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oilprices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, thiswould increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP。。也就是說，油價的上漲對GDP 的影響很小，只有0.25%0.5%。因此我們可以得出答案[D]。
34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that 從文中我們可以得出的結論是
[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now. 油價衝擊已經不再那麼駭人聽聞。
[B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks. 通貨膨脹看起來和油價衝擊無關。
[C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices. 能源儲備能夠使油價下降。
[D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavyindustry。
原油價格的上升導致重工業的萎縮。
【答案】 A
【考點】 文章主旨題。
【分析】 本題的幾個選項需要通篇理解。文章第三段指出油價的經濟影響不會那麼嚴重，作者指出其原因是原油價格占汽油價格的比例不高，已開發國家對石油的依賴減弱，此次漲價的背景不一樣了。文章最後一段說這次油價上漲與20世紀70年代的上漲不同，對各國的影響也基本沒有反映出來，連物價基本都沒有變動，也就是說，油價衝擊已經不是那麼可怕。所以答案是[A]。
35. From the text we can see that the writer seems 從本文中我們可以看出作者看上去是
[A] optimistic. 樂觀的。 [B] sensitive。敏感的。
[C] gloomy. 沮喪的。 [D] scared。恐懼的。
【答案】 A
【考點】 作者態度題。
【分析】 本文作者主要講的就是這次油價上漲的影響不大。尤其是第三段和最後一段的第一句話，強調人們不必擔心此次油價上漲，因為這一次的情況與20世紀70年代不同。由此可見作者的態度是樂觀的。
難句解析：
1. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter gripsthe northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short time。
【結構分析】本句的主語是Strengthening economic growth，謂語是could push，插入成分是一個時間狀語，其中有一個as引導的定語從句，修飾time。
2. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oilprices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, thiswould increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP。
【結構分析】本句的主句是The OECD estimates... that，if引導一個條件狀語，comparedwith $13 in 1998是過去分詞短語做比較狀語，主句是this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only0.25-0.5% of GDP，其中的主語this指代的是if條件句。
3.One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices isthat, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the backgroundof general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand。
【結構分析】本句的主幹是One more reason is that.。.。在that引導的表語從句中，它的主語是it，指代的是the rise in oil prices。
全文翻譯：
過去經濟衰落的糟糕日子會不會重來?自從石油輸出國組織在3月同意減少原油供應，原油的價格已經從去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到約26美元一桶。這次近3倍的漲價令人想起了1973年的恐慌，當時油價上漲了4倍;以及1979―1980年的那一次，當時的油價也上漲了近3倍。前兩次的石油恐慌都導致了兩位數的通貨膨脹和全球性的經濟衰退。那麼這次警告人們厄運來臨的頭版資訊都到哪裡去了呢?
本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這又一次推動著油價上揚。強勁的經濟增長勢頭，加上北半球冬季的到來，有可能在短期內使石油價格漲得更高。
然而，我們有充分的理由預期這次油價暴漲帶來的經濟影響不會像70年代那麼嚴重。現在多數國家的原油價格占汽油價格的份額比70年代要小很多。在歐洲，稅占了汽油零售價的4/5，因此，即使原油價格發生很大的波動，汽油價格所受的影響也不會像過去那麼顯著。
已開發國家對石油的依賴也比從前要少得多，因此對油價的波動也就不會那麼敏感。能源儲備、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工業的重要性的降低，都減少了石油消耗。軟體、諮詢及移動通訊消耗的石油，比鋼鐵、汽車行業少得多。已開發國家國民生產總值中每一個美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。國際經合組織在其最近一期的《經濟展望》中估計，如果全年油價均價22美元左右，與1998年的13美元一桶相比，這僅僅會使已開發國家的石油進口在支出上增加GDP的0.25%―0.5%。這還不到1974年或1980年收入損失部分的1/4。另一方面，由於重工業轉移至一些新興石油進口國，它們對能源可能更加敏感，也更可能會受到強烈影響。
另外一個不應因油價上升而失眠的原因是，與70年代的上漲不同，這次油價上升的大背景不是普遍的物價暴漲及全球過旺的需求。世界上很多地區才剛剛走出經濟衰落。《經濟學家》的商品價格指數一年來總的來說沒有什麼變化。1973年的商品價格躍升了70%，而1979年也上升了近30%。
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